The most "hot" lithium battery track has another big event!

In the capital market, the most eye-catching industry is lithium mine . The Australian lithium miner Pilbara's lithium concentrate auction price has always been the vane of the global lithium concentrate price trend. However, the latest lithium concentrate auction has received extensive attention from the market, and the final auction transaction price was US$6,188/ton FOB, down 2.55% from the last transaction price on June 23. And this is the first time the price has fallen for Pilbara since its auction.

Affected by the news, the domestic lithium mine-related A shares generally fell the next day, and there was a sound of lithium salt prices "peaking and falling" in the market. However, according to Ma Rui, chief analyst of SMM Lithium, it is still too early for lithium prices to "top". At the same time, Ma Rui said that the gap between supply and demand will gradually widen by the end of the year, and it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter may exceed the 510,000 yuan / ton mark.

01The industry is still in short supply

The driving force behind the price increase of lithium carbonate is the mismatch between supply and demand. According to the data, the construction period of a lithium battery production line is generally 12 to 18 months, while it takes 7 years to develop a new lithium mine in Australia, and the upstream supply lags far behind the demand side.

As far as lithium resources themselves are concerned, domestic reserves are relatively scarce. According to data from the US Geological Survey, as of the end of 2020, the global lithium resources are about 86 million tons, and the lithium resources in the "lithium triangle" area of South America account for about 60%, and China only accounts for 6%. In 2020, the domestic lithium raw material self-supply rate is 32%, in other words, nearly 70% of China's lithium salt production raw materials need to be imported from abroad.

traditional peak season for the lithium battery industry chain in the second half of the year , some brokerage analysts said that there will be an upward trend based on past conditions. Some people in the industry also believe that with the release of the production capacity of the lithium carbonate processing line, in order to maintain the operating rate, the tense atmosphere of lithium concentrate is getting stronger.

According to SMM data, China's total output of lithium carbonate in June was 31,734 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a month-on-month increase of 9% . Lithium carbonate demand increased by 39% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Ma Rui believes that although lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will go out of storage in early 2022, the supply and demand side will temporarily reverse to accumulating storage in the second quarter due to the increase in supply and demand. However, in the second half of the year, lithium carbonate was mostly removed from the warehouse, and the gap between supply and demand gradually widened at the end of the year.

Lithium hydroxide is much the same. SMM expects that the supply and demand structure of lithium hydroxide will reverse again after the demand side gradually develops in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, the end of the year has entered the stage of rush installation, and the demand at home and abroad has risen rapidly, which may further widen the gap between supply and demand.

"The production speed of lithium mines is slow, and the new energy market maintains a high growth rate", which is one of the main reasons why Ma Rui believes that the global lithium raw materials will still be in short supply in 2022. It also said that from 2023 to 2025, as new overseas mines and salt lakes are put into production, and the downstream demand is met, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may have a downward trend.

02Is lithium battery the "new oil"?

According to CAMCE, as of today, 13 listed lithium mine companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, all of which have increased significantly, reflecting the high prosperity of the lithium industry. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk said, "Absolutely. Lithium batteries are the new oil."

Among the 13 listed companies in A-share lithium mines, several of them performed particularly well. Tianqi Lithium expects to achieve a net profit of 9.6 billion yuan to 11.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 11089.14% to 13420.21%; Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit of 9 billion to 9.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 325.63% to 344.55% year-on-year; An increase of 4080%-4869%; Ganfeng Lithium is expected to achieve a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 408.24%-535.3%.

In this regard, CITIC Securities pointed out that the demand for lithium mines has continued to exceed expectations and the cost has risen, and lithium prices are still expected to rise in the second half of 2022. However, due to factors such as the accumulation of inventories in the industrial chain and the expected ease of supply shortages in 2023, it is expected that the price increase of lithium may be limited in the future. We judge that the inflection point of lithium price may come in 2023, and the price may fall from a high level. In 2024, as the pressure of excess supply increases, lithium price is expected to decline significantly.

Huatai Securities said it is optimistic about the long-term high demand for lithium. It is estimated that the supply and demand of lithium may still be in short supply in 22 years, which supports the price of lithium salt to remain high, but 22H2 is more optimistic about the continuity of the price increase of lithium ore. Since 23 years, the industry supply may slightly exceed the demand again, and the degree of deterioration of supply and demand may reach its peak in 24 years, and it is expected to improve again in 25 years.

An Xin Securities analysis believes that as the downstream demand side gradually gets rid of the impact of the epidemic and recovers rapidly, the installed capacity of electric vehicles continues to grow. The continued prosperity of the new energy industry provides strong support for lithium prices. On the domestic side, the delivery of new car-making forces continues to improve, and the demand for lithium-ion factories to recover is increasing. However, due to the relatively weak performance of 3C demand, the overall price of lithium carbonate has not risen yet. It is expected that with the further recovery of downstream demand, lithium prices are expected to continue to rise.

03 What to watch next week

As for next week's stock market highlights, the first is next week, on July 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR will release new data. On July 15, the central bank launched a 100 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. The winning bid rates were both 2.85% and 2.10%, respectively. Due to the expiration of 100 billion yuan of MLF and 3 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase on July 15, zero investment and zero return were realized.

The MLF operation scale and interest rate announced by the central bank on the 15th of each month are closely related to the LPR announced on the 20th of each month. How is LPR going this month? Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the LPR quotation reference benchmark is likely to remain stable this month. On the one hand, the MLF policy interest rate has remained unchanged this month, the demand for real financing has recovered, and the structure has been optimized.

Secondly, next week (July 18-July 22) there will be 7 new stock offerings. On July 19th, Innotek, Dingjide, Huada Jiutian, and Nongxin Technology were issued; on July 20th, Jinghuawei; on July 21st, Beilu Zhikong; on July 22nd Issued by Feiwotai.

The cumulative number of these 7 new shares issued is about 323 million shares, and the total amount of funds raised is expected to be 8.412 billion yuan. In addition, there will be a new stock listed for the first time next week, and Huifeng Diamond will be listed on July 18.

In addition, next week, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will usher in the highest peak of lifting the ban in a single week. According to Wind statistics, 49 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will usher in the lifting of the ban next week. Based on yesterday's closing price, the number of shares involved in the lifting of the ban will be 10.002 billion shares, and the cumulative market value of the lifting of the ban will be 227.443 billion yuan. Regardless of the number of bans lifted or the market value of bans lifted, next week will be the highest in a single week of the year.

On July 22 (next Friday), the STAR Market will celebrate its third anniversary, and the first batch of companies listed on the STAR Market will usher in the lifting of the ban by major shareholders. According to the latest closing price, 33 stocks will be lifted in a single day next Friday alone, with a total scale of 222.665 billion yuan lifted.

The initial public offering of shares by listed companies is often lifted within one year and three years, forming a peak of lifting the ban. "Da Fei" lifts the ban, that is, the lifting of the ban for shareholders who hold more than 5% of the company's total share capital. Those who ushered in the lifting of the ban on July 22 were all major shareholders of the first batch of 25 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The scale of lifting the ban reached 217.013 billion yuan, and the number of shares lifted was 9.775 billion.